The research finds that subscriber growth is slowing down in Pakistan’s wireless market ; +7.0% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009
- The wireless penetration rate is still low at approximately 60% in 2009, and it is expected that the country’s wireless market will continue to show strong growth. The forecasts says that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 96 million in 2009 to 134.8 million in 2014. So, we might touch 100 million by 2010 end.
- Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan’s mobile operator space over the next five years. The expected mobile subscribers of Mobilink will be 36 million in 2014.
- Also, given the latest quarter numbers, the forecast predicts that Ufone will have 25.8 million, Telenor will have 29 million, and Warid will have 25.3 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014. In this case Mobilink will still be playing on its first mover advantage and the lead the market with Telenor at second.
- Market share loss at Mobilink and market share gain at China Mobile Pakistan from 2010 – 2014 is expected. In terms of shares of total subscribers, we expect that Mobilink’s market share will decline over the next five years, from 30% in 2009 to 26.7% in 2014. On the other hand, we expect China Mobile Pakistan’s (Zong) market share to increase from 8% in 2009 to 13.7% in 2014. The Zong’s growth predicted is quite low.
- The market shares expected at Ufone, Telenor, and Warid will be approximately 19.2%, 21.6% and 18.8% respectively in 2014.